The Recession Will End…
Have you seen us in…
The Recession Will End… This Summer!
Says who: Paul Krugman, Nobel prize-winning economist.
“I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer,” he said in a lecture today at the London School of Economics. “Things seem to be getting worse more slowly. There’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.” (via Bloomberg)
Why it might be false: Who are we to say, he’s Paul Krugman, plus, we’re fans—even if the National Bureau of Economic Research (the gold standard of such economic things) might not be, since its head of Business Dating Cycle Committee Robert Hall said just last week that it’s “way too early” to decide that we’re coming out of the recession, rather than just having a “pause” in a “longer decline.”…
The Recession Will End… No Time Soon
Says who: Paul Ashworth, a senior economist at Capital Economics
“A few months ago, the U.S. was in the throes of the most severe recession since the 1930s,” said Paul Ashworth, a senior economist at Capital Economics. “We’ve had some improvement, but . . . we’re still nowhere near a meaningful recovery or even a slight recovery.” (Washington Post)
Why it might be false: The evidence that the economy is improving can be convincing: a manufacturing report Monday beat expectations and indicated some growth; pending home sales rose 6.7 percent in April; and the stock market hit its highest point Monday for all of 2009. And it doesn’t hurt that the good weather seems to bring with it all kinds of hope and promise…
The Recession Will End… Q309
Says who: National Association for Business Economics
The NABE surveyed leading forecasters to come to this conclusion. From USA Today: “About 74% of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II — to end in the third quarter. Another 19% predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7% believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.”
Why it might be crap: Unemployment is still expected to climb through the end of the year, and many other signs remain wobbly: Housing starts and foreclosures are inconsistent; banks are still carrying toxic debt; credit is still…
The Recession Will End… Really, It Will!, the White House Says
Says who: Peter Orszag, White House budget officer
“The freefall in the economy seems to have stopped,” Mr. Orszag said during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “The analogy is there are some glimmers of sun shining through the trees, but we’re not out of the woods yet.” (via the Wall Street Journal)
Why it might be crap: Don’t take our word for it. Some in the blogosphere think it’s just more blue-sky spin:
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