The Recession Will End… When I Get My Damn Job Back!

Says who: 14.7 million unemployed Americans, some of who spend their days sending resumes, setting up networking meetings, scrutinizing expenses. Others have given up.

Why it might be false: There have been A LOT of predictions about a gradual and jobless recovery, ranging from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to economist Nouriel Roubini. Housing indicators are rebounding well, with starts and sales climbing, and we’re seeing more consistent growth than in the past year. There’s a general consensus that the start of economic growth is projected to start in early 2010, lowly workers be damned.

Why it could be true: As recent as this Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner noted that unemployment may peak in the second half of 2010 on ABC’s “This Week” program, and Larry Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, also admitted that the jobless landscape will be in critical condition for a while…

The Recession Will End… by 2010

Says who: None other than “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consulting firm.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.” (via RGE)

Why it might be false: Not too long ago (a mere four months), Roubini was predicting an end not until December 2010 or so. And with his new call, he adds so many caveats that you almost think he’s hedging himself against getting it wrong. In line with his Dr. Doom image, he’s described the recovery as “very ugly” and “subpar,” and highlighted that, “It’s going to feel like a recession even when it ends.” While it’s a somewhat nice change to see him cautiously optimistic, he makes it hard to believe him…

Recession Briefing 4.2

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Encouraging signs today: U.S. car sales jumped by nearly 25 percent last month from February, beating the typical rise, there was a rebound in pending U.S. home sales in February from a record low, and manufacturing activity is improving. (AP)

“Dr. Doom” economist Nouriel Roubini writes that there is a dim light emerging at the end of the tunnel: “Compared with the sharp contraction in U.S. and global growth in the first quarter of this year, the rate of economic contraction will slow down for the U.S. and other advanced economies by year-end … with a very weak and tentative recovery by 2010.” (Forbes)

If you come across a good article or blog post about the recession pass it on.