Recession Briefing: Outlook Bleak for Long-Term Unemployed

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Economists fear that the nascent recovery will leave more people behind than in past recessions, failing to create jobs in sufficient numbers to absorb the record-setting ranks of the long-term unemployed. (New York Times)

Bernard Madoff’s top lieutenant may get “extraordinary” leniency from prosecutors for his help in unraveling the largest Ponzi scheme on record. In a letter released on Friday, federal prosecutors in New York praised the efforts of Madoff associate Frank DiPascali in providing “substantial assistance to the government in its investigation and prosecution of others.” (Reuters)

Both domestic mobility and immigration were sharply down in 2007 to 2009 from the levels recorded during most of the decade. (The American)…

The Recession Will End… In Years, Not Months

Most Americans think we’ll be in recession for two more years. According to a new poll from Gallop/USA Today, just as many people think the recession will end in a year as do those who think it will end in five years, with the rest of the respondents falling in the middle.

Could such gloom just be the winter blues? Perhaps, but the findings are similar to those from July:

When asked in an open-ended question how long they expect it to be before the economy starts to recover, 30% now say five years or more, up from 19% in February but similar to the 28% who said so in December. Overall, 68% of Americans now expect it to take two years or more before the economy starts to recover, little changed from 71% in February. One in four (27%) now expect it to take less than two years, about the same as the 24% in February who said this.

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Recession Briefing: Highway Robbery on the Rise

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Thieves are increasingly swiping tractor-trailers filled with goods, triggering a spike in cargo theft on the nation’s highways. (Wall Street Journal)

Nationally, 37 million people — about one in eight Americans — visited food pantries and soup kitchens in 2009, compared with 25 million in 2006, according to Feeding America, the national hunger-relief network that did the study. Officials say the numbers really began to skyrocket at the onset of the recession in late 2007. (Chicago Sun-Times)

President Obama’s proposals to tax and curb the activities of Wall Street have thrown an unpredictable element into the debate over financial regulatory reform. They also have touched off an intensive new round of lobbying and raised questions in Congress over whether his plan will add urgency or merely bog things down. (New York Times)…

Recession Briefing 12.29: Goldman Sucks

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Some of the more tangible expressions of populist rage at Wall Street and Washington over the financial crisis are on t-shirts and other collectibles. Angry, snarky designs came fast and furious in 2009, going after Goldman Sachs , the financial industry bailout, President Obama’s economic policies, and many more. (Business Insider)

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of giant bond manager Pimco, says that we shouldn’t trust the nascent economic recovery. “We’re on a sugar high,” El-Erian says. “It feels good for a while but is unsustainable.” (Associated Press)

It was a rough year for Ponzi schemes. In 2009, the recession unraveled nearly four times as many of the investment scams as fell apart in 2008. (Associated Press)…

Recession Briefing 12.28: Downturn Upends Courts

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

New York State’s courts are closing the year with 4.7 million cases — the highest tally ever — and new statistics suggest that courtrooms are now seeing the delayed result of the country’s economic collapse. (New York Times)

After a year of observing their parents pinch pennies and fret about the economy, the nation’s teenagers may be coming to grips with reality. Sales are down sharply in recent months at nearly every major retail chain catering to teenagers, and interviews with teenagers suggest that the reasons go beyond their own difficulty finding part-time jobs. (New York Times)

Economist Paul Krugman said on Sunday that there’s a “reasonably high chance” the economy will contract in the second half of next year. (ABC via Huffington Post)…

The Recession is Over… Because Jobs are Back?

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. (via Bureau of Labor Statistics report)

Why it might be false: One positive jobs report is kind of like a diamond in the rough when you look at it against the backdrop of other employment indicators, such as the high number of laid-off workers who don’t see jobs on the horizon; part-time workers are an army of 9.3 million—the highest ever; and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits stands around 10 million. Ten million…

The Recovery is Here… Because Online Ad Revenue is Improving

Says who: David Silverman, PricewaterhouseCoopers

“While all segments of the media industry have experienced declines, online advertising remains resilient and is once again showing signs of growth.” [via Internet Advertising Bureau report]…

The Recession Will End… Uh, Sure It Will

We were really disheartened by some of the data in today’s Recession Briefing:

* 23% of homeowners’ properties are underwater
* 13% of parents of adults say one or more of their grown children have moved back in
* 34.5% of black males between the ages of 16 and 24 are unemployed: these are Great Depression proportions, folks
* 17.5% of people are unemployed, according to U-6 data, which includes discouraged and part-time workers who are looking
* The Small Business Administration has run out of money to back loans issued to small businesses.
* 33,000 people were laid off from from a single employer, the postal service in Russia

Things aren’t great, and maybe even scary. In an interview with CNBC.com, one economist suggested that, “Unless you create another bubble in which the economy can create jobs, then you’re not going to have growth. That’s the sad truth.” As such, Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, added that he expects more of an L-shaped recovery—prolonged pain with no sudden rebound…

The Recession Has Ended… in the Art Market?

Says who: Sotheby’s head of contemporary art Tobias Meyer in reference to his $43.76 million sale of Andy Warhol’s “200 One Dollar Bills”

“… after a year of not buying … collectors have started buying again … The desire to have great things will make (them) step up and pay more than $40 million for a work of art.” (via Reuters)

Why it might be false: One pricey painting is an uptick, but it doesn’t…

The Recession Ended… in September

Says who: U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, as the department reported a 3.5 percent growth in the GDP in the third quarter following six quarters of decline.

“Today’s numbers indicate that the tough decisions this administration made to rescue the economy from the abyss were correct. We’re headed in the right direction, and even though there are still too many Americans out of work and still much work to be done, without the action taken in the early days of this administration, the pain families are feeling today would be much worse.” (Commerce Department press release)…