predictions
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The Recession Will End… When GM Starts Hiring Again
Says who: The 250,000 Americans impacted by fallout in the automotive industry (i.e. lost their jobs), whether they worked on site for the companies, at dealerships, or supplier companies.
Why it might be false: manufacturing is just 10 percent of the economy; not the 38.8 percent it once was, so what happens in manufacturing won’t move the needle nearly as much as it once might have. Adding jobs by any employer will surely offer a positive sign that the recession is ending, but it’s almost impossible for General Motors to offer enough jobs to crack that.
Why it might be true: If – and this is a big if – General Motors could hire back, and prompt its dealerships and suppliers to hire back – all the people it caused to lose their jobs, that would certainly do something for the economy: In a single swoop, it would lower the national unemployment rate from 9.4%. It would also be a sign that output is up, a key indicator of economic health…
The Recession Will End… Q309
Says who: National Association for Business Economics
The NABE surveyed leading forecasters to come to this conclusion. From USA Today: “About 74% of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II — to end in the third quarter. Another 19% predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7% believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.”
Why it might be crap: Unemployment is still expected to climb through the end of the year, and many other signs remain wobbly: Housing starts and foreclosures are inconsistent; banks are still carrying toxic debt; credit is still…
The Recession Will End… Really, It Will!, the White House Says
Says who: Peter Orszag, White House budget officer
“The freefall in the economy seems to have stopped,” Mr. Orszag said during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “The analogy is there are some glimmers of sun shining through the trees, but we’re not out of the woods yet.” (via the Wall Street Journal)
Why it might be crap: Don’t take our word for it. Some in the blogosphere think it’s just more blue-sky spin:
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