The Recession Will End… When Housing Gets Sorted

Just a few short weeks ago, it felt like we were through the worst of it – jobs seemed to be improving, retail sales were strong, banks were paying back their loans to the government. But then one niggling little issue emerged: the housing market is hardly in good shape.

The big question is when to buy. Prices surged in the summer and early fall, and so did sales, thanks to a government tax credit. That credit is due to expire in April, which, coupled with rising interest rates, could put the market at a standstill. Surely prices may fall, benefiting buyers, but there may be fewer homes on the market. And who wants a mortgage at a higher interest rate – if you even qualify? Banks are becoming more stringent, recommending mortgages be capped at no more than three times one’s annual income, with no less than 20% down…

Making Your Hometown Feel New

Why get out of Dodge when you can recreate Dodge? There are people you haven’t met, tourist traps you haven’t considered, road configurations you haven’t taken—and at the end of the day, it’s a fine place to live. And it’s up to you to make it so.

Since the start of the recession in 2007, Americans’ overall mobility—that is, the number of people who moved from one state to another—has dropped to its lowest levels since WWII, according to the Brookings Insitution. That’s because picking up and moving just isn’t as simple as it used to be. With unemployment rates still at record highs in many parts of the country and real estate troubles forcing homeowners to stay put while they wait to find a buyer, it’s hard for people to move to wherever it is that they want to be…

Recession Briefing: Can’t Drive 55

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Just what Americans need as they try to dig out from the Great Recession: gas prices headed back toward $3 per gallon. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline hit $2.70 on Thursday, according to the auto club AAA. That’s up 67 percent from this time last year. (Washington Post)

The decimated housing market may get considerably worse before it gets better, according to housing-industry professionals, who expect foreclosures and home-price declines to continue pressuring the sector through at least the first half of 2010. (Time)

Apartment vacancies hit a 30-year high in the fourth quarter, and rents fell as landlords scrambled to retain existing tenants and attract new ones. The vacancy rate ended the year at 8%, the highest level since Reis Inc., a New York research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets, began its tally in 1980. (Wall Street Journal)…

Recession Briefing: Goodbye, Tavern on the Green

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Despite extensive government intervention in the housing market, some policy makers at the Federal Reserve are worried that even more might need to be done. (New York Times)

The aftershocks from deep recessions reverberate for years, even decades, and take an enduring toll on everything from government finances to countless upended individual lives. What economist John Irons calls “economic scarring” will long serve as a reminder of the 2007-09 recession. (USA Today)

Lacking a license and loaded with debt, Tavern on the Green, the glittery New York City eatery, went dark after a final champagne-drenched fete on New Year’s Eve. On Jan. 13 relics of the shuttered restaurant will be auctioned off over three days. (Wall Street Journal)…

The Recession Really Ends… This Year. Period.

Okay, so here we are: 2010. According to even the most doomsaying of economists—none less than Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini—this is when things get better.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.” (July 16, 2009, via RGE, Recessionwire)

Whether you agree with Larry Summers that “everybody agrees that the recession is over“…

Recession Briefing 12.18: Christmas Wallets Opening Up

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

The average amount of money Americans predict they will spend on Christmas gifts this season is now $743, up from last month’s estimate and a healthy increase over Americans’ Christmas spending forecast at this time a year ago. (Gallup)

Are you wondering why you’re not getting as many holiday cards this year? The U.S. Postal Service says there was an 11% decline in cancellations of first-class cards and letters from Dec. 1-13 — when most Americans mail holiday cards — compared to 2008. (USA Today)

About 1.7 million homeowners were on the verge of foreclosure in the fall, a looming “shadow inventory” of homes that will be put up for sale in the coming years and weigh down prices, a report said. (Associated Press)…

The Recession Will End… Uh, Sure It Will

We were really disheartened by some of the data in today’s Recession Briefing:

* 23% of homeowners’ properties are underwater
* 13% of parents of adults say one or more of their grown children have moved back in
* 34.5% of black males between the ages of 16 and 24 are unemployed: these are Great Depression proportions, folks
* 17.5% of people are unemployed, according to U-6 data, which includes discouraged and part-time workers who are looking
* The Small Business Administration has run out of money to back loans issued to small businesses.
* 33,000 people were laid off from from a single employer, the postal service in Russia

Things aren’t great, and maybe even scary. In an interview with CNBC.com, one economist suggested that, “Unless you create another bubble in which the economy can create jobs, then you’re not going to have growth. That’s the sad truth.” As such, Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, added that he expects more of an L-shaped recovery—prolonged pain with no sudden rebound…

Recession Briefing 11.10: Home Invaders Curbed

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

One of the few bright spots of the recession: The number of home burglaries is falling in some cities and towns. “With a lot more unemployed people, a lot more people are staying home, and they see more in their neighborhood,” said St. Louis County Sgt. Thomas Lasater. (Associated Press)

One bright spot of Friday’s gloomy jobs report was the surge in temporary hires. Companies are hiring more temps with plans to convert them into full-time workers if economic conditions improve. (Wall Street Journal)

The Dow gained more than 53 percent from its March trough while the S&P is up over 61 percent from its springtime low. That’s just not normal; it’s too much, too soon. (The Big Money)…

Recession Briefing 8.3: Housing is Back

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

By every measure, except foreclosures, the housing market has stabilized and many areas are recovering, according to a spate of data released in the past two weeks. (Los Angeles Times)

Families are expected to spend 8 percent less on back-to-school purchases, including everything from new shoes to dorm room gear, the National Retail Federation forecasts. Also, Recessionwire: 10 stores offering deals. (Associated Press)

Strapped local and state governments are still spending on at least one activity: seeking stimulus money. (Wall Street Journal)…

Recession Briefing 7.9

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

“Our first stimulus bill … was sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having also a bunch of candy mixed in,” said Warren Buffett, backing the idea of another stimulus package. (ABC News)

While parents may scrimp on their own clothing allowances during the recession, they won’t on their baby’s, making basic baby apparel one of the most defensive discretionary consumer categories in the economic downturn. (Wall Street Journal)

The free and cheap daytime activities at Seattle’s Recession Camp are designed to bring summer camp-style socializing to unemployed adults. (KOMO News)

In this climate it isn’t difficult to imagine that some museums are looking to the works on their walls (or more likely in the their collection vaults) as a possible solution to to their financial problems. Should they? (Chicago Now)…