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The Recession Will End… in 2010
Says who: Ben Bernanke
“FOMC participants generally expect that, after declining in the first half of this year, output will increase slightly over the remainder of 2009. The recovery is expected to be gradual in 2010, with some acceleration in activity in 2011.” (via Federal Reserve testimony)
Why it might be false: Even if output, the total value of all goods and services the country produces, does increase before the end of this year, it won’t really matter unless someone actually buys all that stuff…
The Recession Will End… Wait, It Already Did
Says who: Christopher Rupkey, the New York-based chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
“Consumers and businesses have postponed purchases for six months, the population is still growing about 1.2% per year, and if the unemployment rate is close to peaking, then growth may be firmer than expected in the second half of 2009.” [Rupkey] points to a series that in the past has proven a remarkably good indicator of business cycle troughs: weekly claims for unemployment benefits, [which] … peaked in the week of March 28. (via WSJ)
Why it might be crap: Sounds a little like the aftermath of 9/11, no? “I encourage you all to go shopping more,” George W. Bush said in 2001. Looking at the indicators themselves, there’s disagreement over when Americans will return to the malls in force, or when housing starts will improve, or even whether unemployment has bottomed out — considering how much of a surprise last month’s number was, and the fact that many are predicting the rate will move comfortably into the double-digits…
The Recession Will End… Q309
Says who: National Association for Business Economics
The NABE surveyed leading forecasters to come to this conclusion. From USA Today: “About 74% of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II — to end in the third quarter. Another 19% predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7% believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.”
Why it might be crap: Unemployment is still expected to climb through the end of the year, and many other signs remain wobbly: Housing starts and foreclosures are inconsistent; banks are still carrying toxic debt; credit is still…
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