The Recession Will End … When Charitable Giving Bounces Back


Americans are buying more holiday gifts this season than last, but that same spirit of generosity has yet to reach most charities. (via Chronicle of Philanthropy)

If a tight job market, pinched portfolio and limited credit have taught us anything this year, it’s that when it comes to spending, it’s time to prioritize. We’re partially surprised that spending on gifts has trumped giving to charities, but it might be worth separating the two data points: Holiday spending reflected a small but growing uptick in Americans’ income, coupled with cutting back that happened all year. Who wouldn’t splurge a little at the holidays?

But when people cut back on giving to philanthropy, that’s something else altogether…

The Recession is Over… Because Jobs are Back?

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. (via Bureau of Labor Statistics report)

Why it might be false: One positive jobs report is kind of like a diamond in the rough when you look at it against the backdrop of other employment indicators, such as the high number of laid-off workers who don’t see jobs on the horizon; part-time workers are an army of 9.3 million—the highest ever; and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits stands around 10 million. Ten million…

The Recession Has Ended… in the Art Market?

Says who: Sotheby’s head of contemporary art Tobias Meyer in reference to his $43.76 million sale of Andy Warhol’s “200 One Dollar Bills”

“… after a year of not buying … collectors have started buying again … The desire to have great things will make (them) step up and pay more than $40 million for a work of art.” (via Reuters)

Why it might be false: One pricey painting is an uptick, but it doesn’t…

The Recession Ended… in September

Says who: U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, as the department reported a 3.5 percent growth in the GDP in the third quarter following six quarters of decline.

“Today’s numbers indicate that the tough decisions this administration made to rescue the economy from the abyss were correct. We’re headed in the right direction, and even though there are still too many Americans out of work and still much work to be done, without the action taken in the early days of this administration, the pain families are feeling today would be much worse.” (Commerce Department press release)…

The Recession Will End… When Google Says So?

Says who: Eric Schmidt, Google’s chief executive

“While there is obviously a lot of uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery, we believe the worst of the recession is behind us… So we’re very optimistic now about the future. We now have the business confidence to invest heavily in the next phase of innovation, hoping to invent the future as we see it.” (via SeekingAlpha)

Why he might be wrong: For the 15.1+ million Americans facing the most challenging job market in decades…

The Recession Will End… When We All Say So

Last week, a lot of you let us know when and how the recession will be over for you in our giveaway. Not surprisingly, common themes revolved around jobs, college tuition, and real estate. These days these topics make up the recession buzz and sound almost like another headline or statistic on the recession’s status. Yet, your input brought the recession’s tensions, struggles, frustrations, and hopes to a very human level—reminders that whether we like it or not, we’re in this together.

As mom Carol Connolly said, “I will know that the recession is over when I can stop wondering and worrying if my husband or I or one of my children will lose our jobs.”…

Contest: The Recession Will End… When YOU Say So

For this week’s feature, it’s your call when the recession will end. For about four months, we’ve given you our take on the recession’s end with a focus ranging from economist forecasts, impact to on your lives like health insurance and college tuition, and recession trends like staycations and the coupon craze.

After taking you through our thoughts on the recession’s end from many angles, we’re interested to know how you measure the recession’s end in your own life. At a macro level, we’ve been inundated with headlines of housing, unemployment, and other economic analysis and forecasts. In our everyday lives, we’ve felt recession pressures in unique ways and broken down our material needs into necessities, small splurges and sizable sacrifices…

The Recession Will End… When Coupons Are So Yesterday

Like the Great Depression in the 1930s, the Great Recession seems destined to turn many Americans into lasting coupon-cutters, scrimpers and savers. (via AP)

Why it might be false: Coupon clipping is in vogue during the down economy, but recent history shows that this trend comes and goes with the economic cycles. According to Inmar, a coupon-processing company, coupon redemption reached its height at the end of the early 1990’s recession. Coupon use fell fairly steadily until the end of 2008 but then picked up again when swaths of demographic groups like young, single and affluent consumers started to use coupons. While it’s true that these groups would never be expected to clip coupons, let’s be real and admit that it’s hard to go against the grain when signs of the downturn are ubiquitous. In fact, their coupon use may even be attributed to peer pressure since conspicuous spending is so out. It’s almost impossible not to want to be disciplined and spend money a little more wisely during the Great Recession, but this restrained way of living probably won’t last when it’s over…

The Recession Will End … When Cheap Treats are History and Spending is Back to Normal

[Consumer spending] makes up about 70% of the economy, and the American shopper traditionally has led the nation out of recession. Not this time, most experts say. Consumers have lost about $13 trillion in wealth in the housing and stock market swoons. They’re trying to recoup some of that by socking away any extra cash. The savings rate hit 5.2% in the second quarter vs. a low of 1% before the crisis. And don’t forget tight-fisted lenders, the fall-off in home equity loans amid plunging real estate values, and a high jobless rate that makes even working Americans nervous about their future.

“People are beginning to realize you can’t live beyond your means forever,” says Standard & Poor’s chief economist David Wyss.” (via USA Today)

Why it might be false and consumer spending won’t get us out of the recession: After the Great Depression, many Americans stayed cheap and thrifty long after the economy started to grow—long enough for their children and grandchildren to remember. The Great Recession has been the first major economic disruption in many Americans’ lifetimes, so of course there are questions about whether the effects will be similarly lasting. There is no robust recovery clearly in sight…

The Recession Will End … When Trust is Restored in the Financial Industry

Says who: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon

“No discussion of the future of the financial system can be complete without an acknowledgment of the industry’s responsibility to re-earn the trust of the American people. How do we earn trust back? First, company leadership must foster a culture within their institutions that focuses on integrity, strong execution, quality products, long-term value creation, and doing the right thing. Rewards have to track real, sustained, risk-adjusted performance. Golden parachutes, special contracts, and unreasonable perks must disappear. There must be a relentless focus on risk management that starts at the top of the organization and permeates down to the entire firm. This should be business-as-usual, but at too many places, it wasn’t.” (via WSJ)

Why it might be false: Restoring trust in an industry that brought down the global economy will probably be so tough that we’ll see growth in other key sectors of the economy before there’s actual, real trust here…