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The Recovery Has Arrived… on Wall Street

How so: With the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearing the 10,000 mark, it would seem good times are coming back. The last time it was around 10,000 was last fall, and it was just one short year earlier when it hit its high around 14,000. Remember that? Back when we were all swimming in cash, vacationing in St. Bart’s, shopping just because we felt like it… (You were doing that, right?)

Good signs: The macros are up, from the DJIA (in March we were talking Dow 5,000!) to strong earnings from Google and Apple to a strong showing from the almighty GDP, and even housing data is on the move (well, sales at least, although foreclosures continue their nightmarish rise). Is this change we can believe in?

Other signs: Business Week put it so well: “What’s different in this recovery is the extent to which the leading indicators are soaring ahead of the lagging ones.” You’ve probably noticed one of the leading lagging ones if you or someone you know is out of a job. Let’s also remember that the financial system’s own mess is still not completely untangled – last year’s tamping down was no surgery, just a stop-gap approach.

So is the recession really over? On Wall Street, sure. For now, at least. The stock market has shown a fairly consistent upward tick, corporate financials are strengthening, lending isn’t what it was in the boom times, but it’s flowing more steadily now than this time last year. Some hiring has resumed (just don’t talk to us about bonuses, we don’t even want to know). Perhaps it’s just a case of the other shoe waiting to drop – we hope not, but if it means rooting out the inherent structural flaws in our Wall Street-dependent economy, it might not be such a bad thing. Big picture, people, big picture.

Tags: economy, jobs, recession, recovery, The Recession Will End..., Wall Street