Off the Page…and Into the Real World

I couldn’t help but laugh when, right as we were approaching the final stretch of the presidential campaign, the economy went off the deep end. I laughed because I sure as hell didn’t need the 24-hour news cycle to tell me how bad things were.

I’m a screenwriter, a card-carrying member of the Writers Guild of America, and though I have had nine movies made (credited and uncredited), business has been abysmal from about six months before the November ’07 writers strike to…oh, say, today. Tomorrow. Next week. The foreseeable future.

I weathered the strike, as I had weathered a previous career dry spell. But the weathering, ladies and gentlemen, is over. I’m looking for a real job. But as I awaken to the lifeless moonscape that is the present economy, I have to wonder: what was wrong with me that I didn’t start looking for one sooner?

I know most of the answer to that. I had it in my head from a young age that being “talent” was an end in and of itself – if you can make 100 percent of your living off said talent, you win. That’s how my grandfather did it as a commercial artist. That’s how my cousin Molly Picon, legend of the Yiddish stage, did it. That’s how my TV producer cousin Bruce has been doing it since the ‘80s.

A very short time ago, I wasn’t certain whether this notion of purely being a screenwriter was more important to me than my marriage. Two things changed that in a hurry. The first was news that a paying gig I had been counting on wasn’t going to happen anytime soon. The second was our checking account balance…

Screwed: 4,000 at British Airways?

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Today’s Partial Total: 949

British Airways is currently in talks with unions over a proposed cut of 4,000 jobs…EDS Germany came to an agreement with their unions and are laying off 300 workers, instead of the planned 839…Florida is set to layoff 159 state employees…Yorozu America Corp. plans to close their Battle Creek facility, costing 143 workers their jobs…GE Capital plans to layoff 127 workers in Bedford, TX…Stride Rite is closing its Huntington site and laying off 120 employees…Blue Cross and Blue Shield plan to layoff 100 employees in Minnesota…

Recession Briefing 7.15

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

More than half of executive-level job seekers think the recession has been good for their children, as a lesson that opportunity will not be handed to them. (Reuters)

Buoyed by some positive forecasts, Daniel Gross is ready to call an end to this whole recession thing. (Slate)

Marion Maneker wonders whether our culture of narcissism unleashed the boom — and thus the recession. (The Big Money)

How to Survive and Thrive in the Recovery

An ounce of a prevention is worth a pound of cure, they say, and many of us wish we’d thought ahead about the downturn we’re in (it’s not like you couldn’t see it coming, with teetering mortgages built on nothing and monolithic banks crumbling all around).

So, lesson learned. Now we look ahead to recovery. What are you doing to prepare? The signs of an end to the recession are inconsistent, at best, with economists and banks — and politicians — all over the map on their predictions. But the day may come when the economy is robust and healthy, and you need to be ready for it. No longer will lavish spending be something you want to flaunt. Frugality is in; it’s here to stay. If you don’t want to be caught all bespoked and besotted with pecuniary privilege, you’ll need these essential tips for slimming down now, before it’s too late (with apologies to U.S. News):

1. Rethink your lifestyle. It’s okay to live at home for a little while. Call it shag chic à la 1970s basements.

2. Couponize. They’re better than food stamps.

3. Downsize permanently. Ditch the manse and live on the road. It worked for Jack Kerouac.

4. Get competitive about it. Isn’t there a reality show about scraping and scrounging? Oh, right. The Real Housewives of New York City…

The Recession Will End… Second Half of 2009*

Says who: A bunch of economists surveyed by Bloomberg

The U.S. economy will expand faster than previously forecast in the second half of this year and in 2010 as a revival in consumer spending signals an end to the recession. (via Bloomberg)

Why it might be crap: These guys are all over the place. In its own article on the report, Bloomberg admits that the same group had wildly different predictions in earlier surveys. Just one month ago, the same panel held a more bearish outlook, expecting the economy to shrink more than its 1.8 percent in April and May. The group also held that the Fed would keep the benchmark interest rate in a near-zero holding pattern until end of next year. Suddenly, they’re all bull? They say the Fed could raise the rate to 1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year—that’s a full year’s difference. Further, even though these economists anticipate the unemployment rate will indeed climb above 10 percent, they don’t seem to give it much weight in their formulations, so it’s hard to imagine we’re getting the best, fullest and consistent eye on the economy here…

How to Keep Employees in the Downturnaround

The unemployment rate is still high and new layoffs are announced each day. In other words, we’re not in a recovery yet. But companies should start thinking now about what happens as the labor pool shallows out.

Right now there are countless people who have had to take unpaid leaves or were hired on the cheap; when the economic situation improves, don’t expect them to show much loyalty to their employers. They’ll be interviewing on company time, taking calls from recruiters and jumping ship like crazy.

I frequently receive calls from candidates tied to the automotive industry. A former director of human resources who had to take a job as the HR manager of a very small operation and a 25% pay cut asked me to find him a new position. He told me that he was willing to take a pay cut but in exchange for flexibility with vacation and company car, but the Japanese company we were dealing with would not negotiate. Even though he has more than 20 years of experience, he won’t receive any vacation time until year two of employment. The vacation time for the five years after that is only one week. Do you think he’ll be sticking around that long if he has a choice?

Smart employers will be prepared to keep strong employees and add new (or old) ones to stay competitive. Ask these seven questions to get on track…

Screwed: 1,000 at Bashas’ Supermarkets Inc.

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Today’s Partial Total: 1,877

Arizona grocer Bashas’ Supermarkets Inc. will be closing 10 locations and effectively laying off about 1,000 employees… Military vehicle manufacturer Navistar will lay off 275 employees… Contract research company PPD will lay off 270 employees across the US… American Steamship Co. has officially announced its layoff of 204 employees in late June…

Recession Briefing 7.14

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

In Japan, even robots are starting to feel the effects of the recession. (New York Times)

Is the recession bad for your health? A recent study from Yale University found that job losses can make the fat fatter and the drinkers drunkards. (Wall Street Journal)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says that the American and world economies will be out of the recession in a matter of months. (Telegraph)

Recession for Men (Video)

It’s not Monday—it’s Manday. There’s been a lot of very serious chatter about how much more men are suffering in the downturn. (See Recession Lexicon: Mancession.) But we’re all about bringing you the the lighter side, too. To appreciate this takeoff of the whispery, angst-ridden Calvin Klein fragrance ads, it helps to have been of television-watching age in the 80s. Thanks to Funny or Die!

Recession Lexicon: Mancession

/n. A downturn in which men are affected more than women. Several economists, including Mark Perry, a professor of economics and finance at the University of Michigan who coined the term, agree that men have been falling behind in several areas, from life expectancy to employment. In this recession, American Enterprise Institute scholar Christina Hoff Summers points out, 80 percent of the jobs lost were held by men, since they dominate manufacturing and construction.

Thanks to Derek Thompson at The Atlantic for uncovering the mancession trend.