The Recession Will End… by 2010

Says who: None other than “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consulting firm.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.” (via RGE)

Why it might be false: Not too long ago (a mere four months), Roubini was predicting an end not until December 2010 or so. And with his new call, he adds so many caveats that you almost think he’s hedging himself against getting it wrong. In line with his Dr. Doom image, he’s described the recovery as “very ugly” and “subpar,” and highlighted that, “It’s going to feel like a recession even when it ends.” While it’s a somewhat nice change to see him cautiously optimistic, he makes it hard to believe him…

Screwed: 1,700 at Continental Airlines

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Today’s partial total: 3,027

Continental Airlines will be eliminating 1,700 positions… 1,100 employees face possible layoffs in Hawaii’s United Public Workers and Goverment Employee Association… Washington D.C.’s Department of Mental Health is laying off 120 employees this summer… Microdyne Outsourcing Inc. plans to close a logistics center this fall, laying off 78 employees in the process… Arizona Attorney General’s Office is laying off 29, 12 attorneys and 17 staff…

Recession Briefing 7.21

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Science has confirmed what we had suspected — financial stress has a way of turning into body fat. (Live Science)

The recession has jolted Las Vegas in a fundamental way. Upward mobility for the working class is evaporating. (Wall Street Journal)

Components of the index of leading economic indicators are signaling the recession may be over now, not three to six months from now. (Bloomberg)

Ode to Less and Less

My job as an administrative executive at a large publisher was eliminated over two years ago, after almost 18 years there. Although this is never good, I was treated respectfully, paid a very fair severance and retired this March. In some ways, this fact and, later, “the recession,” may have sparked dormant creativity. I began to re-teach myself how to write, composing haiku or light verse almost everyday. I also expanded my illustrated notebooks and journals, kept for years, and began making original collages.

In March, I started a small consulting firm, and Christie’s is my first client. So, I am at Ground Zero of what I think of as a deep and profound cultural shift, rather than merely a “recession.” I have a daughter who is 23 and a son, 25, both striking out on their own as well…

Will “Forced Frugality” Last?

Lately I have been hearing about the concept of “forced frugality” from the media and my peers. Many colleagues and family members say they feel a need to be frugal in this economic climate due to job loss and investment losses. With this shift to frugality it seems that shopping at thrift or dollar stores is suddenly trendy. However, will this new wave of frugality last? (Recessionwire co-founder Sara Clemence isn’t so sure it will.)

Right now some households have no choice but to be frugal. With job losses, credit card companies aggressively cutting credit lines, and home equity lines drying up due to the drop in real estate prices, many are forced to be conservative with their cash…

Discount Dental

While a number of creative ways exist to find affordable health care coverage, one question remains unanswered for many: What about my teeth?

Poor dental health has been linked to a whole host of other medical conditions. And to make matters worse, the cost of a visit to the dentist’s office is rising so quickly that even basic cleanings and fillings have become unaffordable for many.

So what’s an uninsured person to do? For many, discount clinics run by accredited dental schools have stepped in to fill the void, while other consumers are choosing to leave the country entirely for dental work at half the cost. But those aren’t your only options. We’ve put together a round-up of popular ways to get discounts on your dentistry, even without insurance…

Screwed: 3,600 at Swedbank

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Today’s partial total: 9,238

Swedbank is planning to cut 3,600 employees in the Baltic and Ukraine in a move to lower headcount by the end of 2010… British Telecom is cutting 2,750 workers at call centers in India and moving the jobs back home to England… Harley Davidson will lay off 1,000 workers. … Cisco will lay off 600 workers. … Citigroup is laying off 500 employees and outsourcing to First Data, which will then add 400 to 500 jobs… British Council plans to let go 400 to 500 employees, roughly one third of its UK workforce… Eaton Electrical Group plans to lay off 127 workers… Bausch & Lomb plans to cut 120 jobs at its Waterford manufacturing plant… Sony Online Entertainment is laying off 41 employees, about 5% of it total workforce… Union Tank Car plans to layoff 22 workers…

Recession Briefing 7.20

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

As they ride out the economic recession, some American rodeos are bucking the hard times while others are sitting on the fence. (Associated Press)

540,000 Americans will exhaust their unemployment insurance benefits by the end of September, and a whopping 1.5 million will run out of coverage by the end of the year. (National Employment Law Project)

Federalism, often described as one of the great strengths of the American system, has become a serious impediment to reversing the downturn. (New Yorker)

Lemonade Makers: The Unexpected Impresarios

Brandon Howard and Fisayo Esconsay, both 28, were roommates at the University of Maryland. When the economy took a dive, Esconsay’s law firm, Sullivan & Cromwell, warned associates they should look for other opportunities; Howard, who worked in music marketing for Steve Stoute and Jay-Z, was laid off. In September, they plan to open Recess, a new nightclub located a block from the White House. They talked to Recessionwire about why they’re betting the project can thrive.

Nightclubs are a notoriously fickle business. What makes you think you can pull this off in this economy?

Esconsay: I’ve been promoting events in D.C. this whole time, through the economic downturn. The nightclub business hasn’t realty taken as much of a hit as other businesses. I’m not sure if people are looking for low cost alternative for entertainment or what, but the nightclub business hasn’t missed a beat.

Howard: People have to look at opportunity. In the recession you have people who are trying to move the ball ahead. Those are the people who are going to come out on top…

Sotomayor Had It Easy

A severe company-wide crisis is underway and, as a mid-level manager, you have to decide: Push forward with a risky new plan that could save jobs and bring in more revenue — if it works — or scrap your costly team now and stay the course. But wait. Now you’re a lower-level worker facing the same situation from a different perspective. How do your elegancies shift? Would you remain loyal to the company? Or stand by your fellow co-workers as part of a team?

Such role-playing games are the type of exercises Hallie Crawford, a certified career coach in Atlanta, Ga., says some of her clients are being run through in job interviews. “It’s kind of a no-win situation,” Crawford says of the above scenario, which a recent client faced. Side with upper management and you’re a yes man; side with co-workers and you‘re disloyal.

Think this week’s vetting process for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor was tough? Try sitting through just about any mid-level job interview these days …