The Recession Will End… No Time Soon

Says who: Paul Ashworth, a senior economist at Capital Economics

“A few months ago, the U.S. was in the throes of the most severe recession since the 1930s,” said Paul Ashworth, a senior economist at Capital Economics. “We’ve had some improvement, but . . . we’re still nowhere near a meaningful recovery or even a slight recovery.” (Washington Post)

Why it might be false: The evidence that the economy is improving can be convincing: a manufacturing report Monday beat expectations and indicated some growth; pending home sales rose 6.7 percent in April; and the stock market hit its highest point Monday for all of 2009. And it doesn’t hurt that the good weather seems to bring with it all kinds of hope and promise…

How a Banker Reinvented Herself

When I first met Vivian Chen, she was an investment banker. She had spent eight years working her way up the ranks to vice president. She had become an expert in her area of coverage, health care. Her staff numbered 100. And she had a global purview.

And then Vivian became one of the many casualties of the financial crisis. That’s when she came to see me.

I had been working in the public relations industry, with a focus on corporate communications. Since the recession began, I had also started to feel somewhat of a career coach, with so many friends of friends aspiring to move into PR. I found myself conducting informational interviews on a regular basis. Most of them were fairly standard introductory conversations, and I usually never heard from them again…

Screwed: Up to 20,000 at General Motors

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Bankrupt General Motors will slash up to 20,000 jobs…Chicago is laying off 1,100 city employees…Swedish aerospace and defense company Saab will lay off 370 office staff at its Saab Bofors Dynamics unit…J.R. Simplot Co. plans to lay off 114 mine and plant workers in Idaho this week…Altec, an aluminum components in Southern Indiana, is axing 60 workers this summer…the city of Reno, Nevada, may eliminate up to 60 jobs…

Recession Briefing 6.2

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Could the plummeting economy be contributing to expanding waistlines? Something is: new data shows that in the past year the number of Americans considered obese has jumped by 1.7 percent. (Newsweek)

Spend wisely now and you’ll save a bundle over what things will cost once the recession lifts. Here are 10 things to buy now — before they get more expensive. (Time)

Fresh signs emerged Monday that the recession is letting up. “What looked like a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel is now starting to look like a beacon,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. (Associated Press)

Pampering to Plump the Economy

We’ve heard the nation’s leaders warn that we can’t really dig ourselves out of this economic ditch until consumer confidence returns—in other words, until we all feel safe enough to get out there and shop. But this plan of action feels rash. Excessive, reckless, down-payment-in-shoes-style consumption is what got us into this mess. And who needs another pair of strappy sandals anyway? But there is one kind of shopping that can help make a difference. It’s the most indulgent, frivolous, pamper-me style shopping—the kind you’ve probably become too monkish to consider. But it’s the best thing for the economy, and for your toes, especially if you’re wearing last year’s styles.

One of the best ways to stimulate the economy yourself is to spend money on personal services, according to Dean Baker, founder of the Center for Economic Policy Research. “Personal services” is finance code for manicures and pedicures, facials, babysitters, lawn care, and dog groomers. Apparently, this is a more efficient and effective form of consumerism, for yourself and the economy as a whole. Service industries generally have low overhead and spend more of their revenue on paying staff than a typical store. They are also often locally owned, keeping your dollars not just within the country’s borders, but in your own community…

Out on the Street: Even Your Friends are Enemies

“Joe the Trader” chronicles his experiences with life after Wall Street.
After 11 years in emerging market finance, I figure I pretty much know everyone in the business. Or I know how to get in touch with them. Being so plugged in is, generally speaking, a good thing. But every now and then things can get a bit too cozy.

A few days ago, the He-Men Unemployment Club congregated at Taza, my neighborhood café in Brooklyn. Roberto, Hal and I were still actively looking for work.

“IBC bank just contacted me to build a research team,” Roberto said. “They said that they wanted a star and frankly there aren’t that many of us with a big name. So I’m pretty optimistic.”

“IBC???” I spat out a mushy mix of crumbs and coffee. “They called me yesterday for the same job.”

Recession Briefing: 06.01.09

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

General Motors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today as part of the Obama administration’s plan to shrink the automaker to a sustainable size. (Associated Press)

Paul Krugman is blaming the recession on the economic policies begun in the early 1980s during the Reagan Administration. (New York Times)

Hugo Lindgren talks to a wide variety of economic forecasters to try and determine whether the “downturnaround: is real. They didn’t agree on much.(New York Magazine)

Screwed: 7,816 in Puerto Rico

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

The government of Puerto Rico plans mass layoffs beginning with the dismissal of 7,816 public workers… Canfor is shutting down three sawmills, resulting in 570 layoffs… Alliant Techsystems will shut down the recently acquired Michael Bianco Inc. factory by July 31, resulting in 350 layoffs… Miami Dade College is forced to cut 197 staff positions… ESPN lays off 100 employees in Connecticut… Chart Industries plans to lay off 100 employees as of July 8…