The Working World

Out on the Street: Smart or Lucky?

On Wednesday I had my second interview with a major US bank. And when I say interview with the bank, I mean I met everyone in the company. I was there for seven hours. I met the head of sales, the head of trading, the head of debt capital markets, the copy guy. You name them, I met them. Fingers crossed, but I think it went well—other than my meeting with Yuri, the 28-year old wunderkind trader.

Yuri made $30 million for the firm last year, his second year of trading, a fact he succeeded in mentioning within the first five minutes of our interview and at least twice more.  If you extrapolate the astronomical growth rate of his investment return, he’s sure to make 300 billion gazillion dollars by the time he reaches my age. Just ask him— he’ll tell you.

Other than his periodic reminders of his success, the interview progressed with the familiar series of questions. He started with the soft “tell me about yourself” and moved on to my current views on markets. I had rehearsed my talking points and was sailing through until Yuri went off on a tangent.

“It’s funny, but you are not the usual type First White Shoe would hire. Usually we hire extremely smart young grads and MBAs and weed them out, keeping the stars,” he said, clearly seeing himself in his own constellation. “You are…ummm…very experienced.”

In particular it made me think of Alfredo. Some at my former firm called him lucky. But was it just luck or was he really just that good? Maybe he was reading the tea leaves and decided that the best thing to do was to get out—and by out he meant far away.

Did he just call me old? Was he suggesting that I’m not smart?? I guess if I was smart I would know whether I was being insulted. (Read How to Feel Like a Bitch.)

I had been prepared for questions on my background, questions on my career. I had expected to have my views on the economy and on the financial markets challenged. But I didn’t anticipate insults. Was this the next chairman of First White Shoe seeing how I would react to a curveball or was this guy just a dick? I knew I needed to be composed but I wanted to give the cocky prick a beat-down. This 40-year-old former-wrestler-former-rugby player has been getting himself into shape over the past six months of unemployment was itching to flex some new muscle.

Of course, this was an interview. So instead I decided to tell the young supernova a fable about a slightly balding, slightly older trader whose star had been rising. He’d ridden the bull market of 2005 and 2006. He navigated through perilous eddies and waterfalls of the credit crisis part 1 in 2007. He was riding high in September 2008, even managing to have his portfolio up for the year, just two weeks after Lehman had gone under. Pleased with his success he told his lady that he should really ask for more capital—not only had he made money in the bull times, he was able to  make it in this mess. At this rate he’d be running the group.

Dear reader, you know the rest of the story. (Read the Out on the Street archives.)

Okay, so I didn’t really tell young Yuri my story. But it did make me think about the remarkable coincidence of timing and success.  In particular it made me think of Alfredo, the head of the global emerging markets business at my former employer. His claim to fame and what catapulted him from good trader to running a multi-billion dollar business was his decision to go on vacation. In 1998, just before the Russian economy collapsed, and with it Long Term Capital Management, Alfredo decided to go on vacation and close his portfolio. As a result, he kept all of his profits for the year while nearly all of his peers lost theirs and more.  Some at my former firm called him lucky. But was it just luck or was he really just that good? Maybe he was reading the tea leaves and decided that the best thing to do was to get out—and by out he meant far away.

It’s interesting for me to compare my experience with Alfredo’s, as Russia/LTCM was the last systemic financial crisis prior to the current one. If only I had gone on vacation at the end of September and had protected my profits. (Read F*@# You Money.) But I didn’t. So is it luck that Alfredo is running a huge business and I’m taking insults from over-confident children? I’m not sure, but I suggest young Yuri thinks long and hard about the role serendipity plays in life before he extrapolates his fortune.

Joe the Trader spent 11 years as a proprietary trader at a major U.S. bank. He has three children and currently lives in Brooklyn. Some names have been changed to protect the innocent (and the guilty). Read more of his Out on the Street column.

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Tags: job-hunting, Out on the Street, The Unemployed Life, Wall Street