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The Recession Will End… This Summer!
Says who: Paul Krugman, Nobel prize-winning economist.
“I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer,” he said in a lecture today at the London School of Economics. “Things seem to be getting worse more slowly. There’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.” (via Bloomberg)
Why it might be false: Who are we to say, he’s Paul Krugman, plus, we’re fans—even if the National Bureau of Economic Research (the gold standard of such economic things) might not be, since its head of Business Dating Cycle Committee Robert Hall said just last week that it’s “way too early” to decide that we’re coming out of the recession, rather than just having a “pause” in a “longer decline.” (What a downer!) But what about those auto workers who are still in the queue to be laid off from General Motors? What about the fact that it’s still not all that easy to get a loan (though by far still too easy to get credit from credit card companies), or that — geez, well, my savings are about to run out, what about yours?
Why it could be true: If you believe, it must be true! Isn’t that what The Secret taught us? Beyond that, the New York Times said Sunday that buyers are coming back to the real estate market.
Our call: Paul Krugman, we like you. You’re among the few who speak truth to power. But we’re not ready to call the end just yet.
Tags: Discussion
2 comments for “The Recession Will End… This Summer!”
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If you look he says in retrospect, when we look back. It is hard to pinpoint the inflection point in the middle but many times you can look back and see the change. I am ambivilent about the turn around. Part of me wants it to stay slow so I can get some cheap coding…
So that’s sort of like saying he’s covered by having future hindsight as his foresight, right?
And I don’t think you’re the only one who sees that there are bargains to be had should this whole thing last a bit longer.