The Recession Will End… in Six Months (End of 2009)

Says who: Wachovia

“In a clear sign that the economic winds have shifted, our recession model puts the latest probability of recession two quarters from now at 37 percent—down significantly from the 80 percent readings earlier this year…the results suggest economic recovery is likely in six months…our outlook is that the recovery will begin in the third quarter of this year.” Wachovia Economics Group

Why it might be false: Who are they to say? Wachovia itself won’t be around much longer as it’s absorbed bit by bit into Wells Fargo. But back to the data: The Wachovia prediction relies on an increase in consumer spending to support economic recovery…

Sell Yourself Without Feeling Like a Jerk

The term “self promotion” often carries a negative connotation—and with good reason. No one enjoys dealing with someone whose solution to every problem starts—and ends—with “I.”

But in tough economic times, it’s more important than ever to make yourself memorable to employers, potential employers, clients, and business and networking associates. You might know what you do—and what you can do. That’s not the same as making sure other people know it.

So how do you advertise “you” to the world without earning Sir Lancelot’s “C’est moi” reputation? By communicating a value package of which you are one component—a fundamental one. Here are the three essentials:

1. Talk about the team

Conveying your abilities is more than providing a laundry list of education, skills training, and professional experience; you need to talk in terms of achievements and accomplishments. To do it without feeling like a braggart, remember that facts melded with humility are a powerful combination…

Easy Etiquette, Recession Approved

You may have lost your job recently, but that’s no excuse to lose your manners, too. Of course, with so many friends and family members struggling with unemployment and financial woes, you may not be sure exactly what proper etiquette even entails anymore.

After all, who’s supposed to pick up the check at dinner now that all of your i-banker friends aren’t feeling so flush? And when is the right time to start networking at a party? Today’s recession is quickly changing all the rules, and bringing up questions that no Miss Manners book in the library is ready to answer.

Luckily, a bevy of “etiquette experts” have been doling out recession-friendly advice over the past few weeks and putting together some general guidelines…

Recession Briefing: 6.30

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.

Zoos across the country are reporting higher attendance as consumers look for affordable entertainment closer to home. (Springfield News-Leader)

As well-off families confront the new contours of their budgets, education may emerge as an attractive, if painful, place to cut. (New York Times/City Room)

The recession has begun to cut into eating habits, affecting not only how much we fork out on food but also what we are putting into our shopping baskets… (BBC)

Screwed: 270 at Hovensa

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Today’s partial total: 584

Hovensa oil refinery in the US Virgin Islands has laid off 270 contract workers… National Archiving Publishing Co. in Michigan has notified about 120 employees of impending layoffs… 95 Fox L.A. employees were given 60-day layoff notices… Gibson Guitars Inc. has laid off 50 from its Nashville offices… Winston-Salem State University is cutting 46 positions, 16 currently filled and 30 vacant… 3 officers will be laid off from the Maplewood Police Department…

How to Buy Tech on the Cheap

For years, I covered tech. But it’s still not the same as knowing how to shop smartly for my next laptop (I can’t wean myself off of the pricier Macs) or figure out what to do about my ancient TV that pulled broadcasts out of the air via rabbit ears.

CNET has a nice package on shopping for tech on a budget that I’m finding useful and maybe you will, too. Their pieces don’t just list what to buy, but help you to understand the products and trends around them. The point is to shop smarter so that you spend your money wisely on products that will serve all your needs, and will last. Some highlights:

Laptops — Try a Netbook. If your computing needs are low, or even basic (web browsing, office doc work, and not too much need for heavy-duty graphics or HD video), Netbooks offer a great package for very little money. Mainly equipped with Intel Atom processors and running Windows XP, they’re not so great a multitasking, but they’ll do the work that most computers handled five years ago with ease…

How to Prevent the Next Crisis

The following is a section from Mark Zandi’s book Financial Shock.

As this is being written, the financial and economic crisis rages on. While progress has been made in quelling the panic in the financial system, it remains far from normal and the global economic downturn remains intense. The global economy will likely continue to shrink in 2009; the last time that occurred was during World War II. The subprime financial shock thus continues to reverberate.

Policymakers understandably have had little room to consider how to ensure that something like this never happens again. The crisis hit its apex when the Bush presidency was winding down and the Obama presidency was getting off the ground. Both were very short- staffed at a time when an army of policymakers would have had an impossible time keeping up with events. But after the panic subsides and the crisis is quelled—and it will—policymakers must quickly refocus their attention to preventing the next crisis.

What follows is four of the most pressing of my “top ten” list of what I believe needs to be done…

Buying Time, or How I Learned to Spend Again

When I got laid off last December and had to curb my spending, there were some things that were hard to give up. I bitched about downgrading from a fancy gym to a utilitarian one. (Read Frugal Fitness for other tips.) I tried to convince my hairstylist to come to my house so I wouldn’t have to forego his services. I was sad about not sending my laundry out—and not just because I don’t like doing the wash. (Read I Miss My Dry Cleaner.)

But there were plenty of upsides to my new frugality. It was cozier to invite friends in for drinks than go out to a bar. It was fun and creative to craft a necklace out of a vintage brooch instead of dashing out to buy something new for a formal party. Though I hate negotiating, I convinced the cable and cell phone companies to give me discounts. I’ve always been financially responsible, but I felt especially virtuous in my new restraint and resourcefulness.

The downturn seemed to have a similar impact on society as a whole. It put the brakes on rampant consumerism. In record time, we have become less materialistic, less wasteful, less brand-obsessed. The savings rate has risen from zero to nearly 7 percent, the highest it’s been since the early 1990s. I’ve been hoping that the recession would be short, but have a lasting effect on our spending habits.

A little more than a week ago, I accepted a three-month consulting gig. It inspired a mix of emotions: I was relieved to have a steady flow of income for a while. I wondered what it would be like to work in an office again. I worried about doing a good job.

But mostly what I felt was an urge to spend, spend, spend…

Screwed: 700 at Hill Air Force Base

A daily review of the employment fallout around the country and the world.

Today’s partial total:2,471

The air force is seeing lots of layoffs this week, with Hill Air Force Base losing 700 employees and Tyndall Air Force Base losing 600 employees…Hewlett-Packard plans to layoff 500 workers in France…Harvard Business School is set to layoff 275 employees…BAE Systems is cutting 250 jobs…The Sacramento Sheriff’s Office has been forced to layoff 209 deputies and 22 unsworn employees — 80 more than anticipated — due to a costly miscalculation…Smithfield Foods is set to layoff 140 people…The Iowa Court System is slashing 50 jobs…

Recession Briefing: 6.29

What you need to know today to survive and thrive in the recession.
Just as many children of the Great Depression learned to hoard money in their houses, today’s children will develop financial habits based on what they learn from parents coping with the recession. (Chicago Tribune)

With nearly one of 10 U.S. workers unable to land a job in the current economic conditions, some unemployed cubicle warriors with sudden free time are succumbing to wanderlust. (USA Today)

The recession is causing some unhappy couples to rethink their marital situation, since a costly divorce would only further deplete already-shrunken assets. (Wall Street Journal)