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The Recession Will End… Q309
Says who: National Association for Business Economics
The NABE surveyed leading forecasters to come to this conclusion. From USA Today: “About 74% of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II — to end in the third quarter. Another 19% predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7% believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.”
Why it might be crap: Unemployment is still expected to climb through the end of the year, and many other signs remain wobbly: Housing starts and foreclosures are inconsistent; banks are still carrying toxic debt; credit is still unstable and unresolved; and until we sort out our economic relationship with China, nothing’s certain.
Why it could be true: It’s a consensus by a lot of forecasters. And by some measures, they’re actually being overly conservative. Last week, Paul Krugman proposed as soon as summer for recession’s end.
Our call: We’re going to be optimistic here. Third quarter sounds reasonable — and if confidence accounts for a lot in a recovery, we’re all for helping (to a degree) with that.
Watch a discussion of the report here.
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